L'agence de notation chinoise va baisser la note des USA

Dagong Says Will Cut US Rating As Early As Monday

ZeroHedge, 28/07/2011 (traduire en Français  )

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And while pour rating agencies still get their marching orders from Bill Gross and from Obama, in that order, China is not waiting. In a just posted Reuters interview, Dagong said on Thursday it plans a further downgrade as early as next week, even as politicians race against the clock to avert a ruinous debt default. Guan Jianzhong, Chairman of the Beijing-based Dagong Global Credit Rating Co, said he still believed U.S. lawmakers will clinch a last-minute deal on the U.S. debt ceiling, but the damage has been done. "We will react soon, probably next Monday or Tuesday. We need to look at whether they reach a compromise and the scope of the compromise, then we decide how deep the rating cut will be," Guan told Reuters in an interview in his spacious office.

As for Dagong, who as usual is ahead of the curve:

"We will definitely cut the rating, regardless whether there will be a compromise. It has already dealt a blow to investors' confidence," Guan said. He said it could slash the rating to D if Washington defaults.

Le non financement du système social US Etat par Etat

Mapping America's Underfunded State Pension And Healthcare Liability Debacle

ZeroHedge, 26/07/2011 (traduire en Français  )

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Le Brésil taxe les positions shorts sur le dollar

Tentative désespérée d'arrêter la hausse du réal...

Brazil Charges 1% Tax on Bets Against US Dollar, Threatens 25% Tax; Brazilian Real Overvalued, FDI Will Reverse

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis, Mike Shedlock, 27/07/2011 (traduire en Français  )

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The global imbalances continue to grow and the reactions to those imbalances is nothing short of madness.

As a case in point, Brazil Charges Tax on Bets Against Dollar as Real Rallies to 12-Year High.

Brazil imposed a tax on bets against the U.S. dollar and warned it may boost intervention in the nation’s derivatives market in a bid to weaken a currency that reached a 12-year high this week.

As part of a new round of currency measures unveiled today, the government levied a 1 percent tax on short dollar positions in the country’s futures market above $10 million in notional value. The government may increase the tax up to 25 percent if needed, according to the decree signed by President Dilma Rousseff and published today in the Official Gazette.

With thanks to Otavio, please consider a few highlights from the Financial Times article Brazil risks tumbling from boom to bust

Cash Flow Burden Astronomical and Rising

• Average rate of interest on consumer loans 47%, up from 41% in 2010
• Consumer debt service burden was 24 per cent of disposable income in 2010, slated to rise to 28 per cent in 2011. This compares with 16% for an “overburdened” US consumer and a mid-single digit reading for other emerging markets such as China and India.
• Debt service burden for the so-called “middle class” in Brazil has now breached 50% of disposable income
• Delinquencies in Brazil (defaults in excess of 15 days) have begun to move up rapidly, from 7.8 per cent to 9.1 per cent of total loans between December 2010 and May 2011.
  
• Delinquencies are now rising at a very hectic rate. They have risen at 23 per cent in the first five months of this year in absolute terms or at an annualised rate of 55 per cent.
• Normally credit indicators cyclically lag the economic cycle. When they begin to deteriorate before any economic weakness it usually represents a structural problem relating to underlying cash flow or underwriting weakness in the quality of credit – Brazil has both problems.

FDI Will Reverse, Real Overvalued

My comment at the time : I am inclined to agree with Otavio who says the Real is "extremely overvalued".

I see no reason to change my stance now.

It's important to realize Brazil is not a passive victim. Inflation is rampant and government spending is a "whopping 40 percent of gross domestic product" according to Alberto Ramos, Latin America economist at Goldman Sachs in New York, as noted in Guido Mantega Mulls New Currency Measures

At some point FDI and hedge fund bets on the Real will reverse in a spectacular way. I suspect it will be when China slows taking commodity prices with it. However, reversals can happen at any time.

Certainly the situation is unstable, much like it was with the the Icelandic Krona before Iceland imploded.

Aux USA, les taux de crédit immobilier continuent de baisser

Et pourtant, le prix de l'immo ne repart pas... Debt saturation...

Mortgage Rates and Refinance Activity

Calculated Risk, 22/07/2011 (traduire en Français  )

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Le pétrole de retour à 100$

Bon ben la baisse n'aura pas duré longtemps...

The Triple Digits Welcome Back Crude: WTI Back Over $100 Once Again

ZeroHedge, 26/07/2011 (traduire en Français  )

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S&P tatane la Grèce

Ça en devient lassant...

La Grèce encore enfoncée par Standard & Poor's

Le Figaro, Guillaume Guichard, 27/07/2011 (en Français  )

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Après le coup de massue de Moody's, l'agence de notation a placé la note du pays à deux crans du défaut de paiement.

Et revue de presse rapide sur l'Europe...

Italy Cancels August Bond Auction

ZeroHedge, 25/07/2011 (traduire en Français  )

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Italy will cancel its mid-month auction for medium and long-term bonds, known as BTPs, "considering the large cash availability and the limited borrowing requirement," the Treasury said in a statement Monday.

Vote of No Confidence: Deutsche Bank Dumps 70% of Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Italy Debt

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis, Mike Shedlock, 28/07/2011 (traduire en Français  )

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The German bank Deutsche Bank has reduced by 70% exposure to debt issued by countries of the periphery of the euro as Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Italy in the first six months of the year to 3.669 million euros, according reported by the entity. In particular, Germany's biggest bank by assets reported June 30 that its net exposure to the Spanish sovereign debt was 1,070 million euros, 53% less than at the end of 2010, while 87.5% cut their Italian debt exposure, which stood at 996 million.

Angela Merkel faces revolt in Germany over rescue deal

The Telegraph via ZeroHedge, Ambrose Evans Pritchard, 25/07/2011 (traduire en Français  )

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German Chancellor Angela Merkel is facing a storm of protest at home after yielding to EU calls for radical action to shore up Spain and Italy, raising doubts over her ability to implement the package.

Frank Schäffler, finance chair for the Free Democrats (FDP) in the ruling coalition, said the summit deal threatened "the castration of Germany's parliament" by shifting budget power to Europe.

Jens Weidmann, the Bundesbank's chief, said the accord exposes Germany and other creditor states to "sizable risks" and greatly alters the EU's constitutional landscape.

"The euro area has taken a big step toward a collectivisation of risks. This weakens the foundations of a monetary union where each is responsible for its own budget.

In the future, it is going to be even harder to uphold incentives for solid fiscal policies," he said.

While the bail-out fund (EFSF) will be able to intervene pre-emptively to cap Italian and Spanish bond yields, it lacks the €2 trillion (£1.8 trillion) funding to be credible. "Nice tools but no firing power. A rolling crisis is still likely," Mr Cailloux said.

Le chômage en France qui remonte fortement :

Le chômage augmente à nouveau en juin

Le Figaro, Marie Bartnik, 28/07/2011 (en Français  )

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Le nombre de demandeurs d'emploi n'ayant pas travaillé du tout a progressé de 1,3% le mois dernier. Depuis le début de l'année, le marché du travail compte seulement 2100 chômeurs de catégorie A de moins.

Selon le FMI, la France devra faire des efforts supplémentaires pour réduire son déficit

Le Monde, 27/07/2011 (en Français  )

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Dans ce document, le FMI estime que la France devra probablement faire des efforts supplémentaires pour respecter ses engagements de réduction du déficit public en 2012 et 2013. Il prévoit en effet que la France ne parviendra pas à ramener son déficit public sous la barre des 3 % du PIB avant 2014

Le Fonds estime aussi que la consolidation budgétaire à long terme en France nécessitera de nouvelles réformes des systèmes de retraite et de santé.

Et le point sur les taux qui va bien :

Pays	2 ans	5 ans	10 ans
Grèce
Portugal
Irlande
Espagne
Italie
Belgique
France
Allemagne

Sur la Grèce, l'Irlande et le Portugal, l'accalmie semble tenir. Sur l'Italie en revanche, c'est reparti direct à la hausse. Sinon, le spread à 10 ans France Allamagne se resserre...

La FED et son sauvetage des banques avec 16 000 milliards de $ de prêts

Audit Of The Federal Reserve Reveals $16 Trillion In Secret Bailouts

Counter Currents.org, 24/07/2011 (traduire en Français  )

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The first ever GAO(Government Accountability Office) audit of the Federal Reserve was carried out in the past few months due to the Ron Paul, Alan Grayson Amendment to the Dodd-Frank bill, which passed last year. Jim DeMint, a Republican Senator, and Bernie Sanders, an independent Senator, led the charge for a Federal Reserve audit in the Senate, but watered down the original language of the house bill(HR1207), so that a complete audit would not be carried out. Ben Bernanke, Alan Greenspan, and various other bankers vehemently opposed the audit and lied to Congress about the effects an audit would have on markets. Nevertheless, the results of the first audit in the Federal Reserve’s nearly 100 year history were posted on Senator Sander’s webpage earlier this morning.

What was revealed in the audit was startling: $16,000,000,000,000.00 had been secretly given out to US banks and corporations and foreign banks everywhere from France to Scotland. From the period between December 2007 and June 2010, the Federal Reserve had secretly bailed out many of the world’s banks, corporations, and governments. The Federal Reserve likes to refer to these secret bailouts as an all-inclusive loan program, but virtually none of the money has been returned and it was loaned out at 0% interest.

Bernie Sanders(I-VT) : This is a clear case of socialism for the rich and rugged, you’re-on-your-own individualism for everyone else.

Et dans le pdf, c'est page 131 :

Opportunities Exist to Strengthen Policies and Processes for Managing Emergency Assistance

FEDERAL RESERVE, 28/07/2011 (traduire en Français  )

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16 000 milliards de $... Pfiou....

Alors normalement, tout ça, ce sont des prêts et les banques ont du rembourser. La FED est dans son rôle de prêter de la liquidité en cas d'illiquidité. Si en revanche, ce sont des dons (soit directs, soit par des taux ridiculement bas) pour régler une crise d'insolvabilité, là, c'est clairement du vol...

Je serais curieux de savoir ce qui a été remboursé, et quelles étaient les conditions de ces prêts...

La dette US en billets de 100$

Exercice amusant, bien qu'il fasse la distortion de tout rapporter à un homme, quand les américains sont 300 millions...

A visualization of United States debt

WTFnoway.com, 28/07/2011 (traduire en Français  )

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