samedi 7 mai 2011

Le réel enjeu derrière la dette des PIIGS : sauver les patrimoines bidons de nos vieux goinfres

Trappe à Dettes : Quelles conséquences pour les banques françaises en cas de faillite de la Grèce?
Le blog à Lupus, 07/05/2011 (en Français texte en français )
→ lien


La Grèce va-t-elle réussir à rembourser ses dettes? La question s’impose, alors que l’endettement du pays devrait atteindre 340 milliards d’euros cette année

Et elle inquiète ses créanciers, au premier rang desquels on compte les banques françaises.

Les banques françaises possèdent ainsi 56,740 milliards de dollars de créances en Grèce

La Société générale, qui publié ses résultats trimestriels ce jeudi, a ainsi vu son résultat net à l’international chuter de 61% en raison aussi de la crise économique en Roumanie, où le groupe est présent avec sa filiale BRD, mais surtout à cause de sa filiale grecque Geniki. BNP Paribas a pour sa part estimé qu’une restructuration de la dette grecque n’aurait qu’un impact limité sur le groupe, à hauteur de 1,2 milliard d’euros.


Et ZH sur les spreads de taux :
Guest Post: It’s Only PIG: Fears About Spain Are Overblown
ZeroHedge, 07/05/2011 (traduire en Français texte en anglais )
→ lien


Et alors que la Grèce vient réclamer toujours plus d'argent gratuit, on lui demande maintenant, du collatéral...
EU Seeks Collateral for More Greek Aid; Trichet Reiterates Restructuring "Not on the Agenda", Market Reiterates "Trichet is a Pompous Fool"
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis, Mike Shedlock, 07/05/2011 (traduire en Français texte en anglais )
→ lien
Trichet Says No Greek Debt Restructuring

Please consider Trichet: Restructuring of Greek debt is “not on the agenda”

Greek debt restructuring, anticipated by markets, is “not on the agenda,” insisted Thursday the president of the European Central Bank Jean-Claude Trichet in Helsinki.

Trichet Says No Irish Debt Restructuring

The ECB sings the same tune for Ireland as noted in Trichet reiterates opposition to Irish debt restructuring

EUROPEAN CENTRAL Bank (ECB) chief Jean-Claude Trichet has reiterated his opposition to any debt restructuring by Ireland, saying the terms of the EU-IMF bailout plan for the State have been approved by “the entire world”.

Collateral for Extra Greek Aid

Bloomberg reports EU Said to Consider Requiring Collateral for Extra Greek Aid

European Union officials may require Greece to provide collateral for aid as policy makers struggle to prevent the euro area’s first sovereign debt restructuring, said a person with direct knowledge of the situation.

Expanding the 110 billion-euro ($158 billion) lifeline Greece received last year may mean that assets or revenue from asset sales are used to secure extra funds, the person said. Demanding collateral, an idea floated last year by Finland, may help avoid a political backlash against bailouts.
Tout ça devient grotesquement pathétique   On leur demande de gager quoi ? Leurs montres rolex ? L'or de la banque centrale ? Et après ? Ils vont gagner 3 mois de raz'gratis... Et ensuite ? Une fois passés les 3 mois... On fait quoi ?

Europe is running a giant Ponzi scheme
Financial Times, Mario Blejer, 05/05/2011 (traduire en Français texte en anglais )
→ lien
One of the pillars upon which the euro was established was the principle of “no bail-out”.

Here is where this situation resembles a pyramid or a Ponzi scheme. Some of the original bondholders are being paid with the official loans that also finance the remaining primary deficits. When it turns out that countries cannot meet the austerity and structural conditions imposed on them, and therefore cannot return to the voluntary market, these loans will eventually be rolled over and enhanced by eurozone members and international organisations.

Mais bon, il faut absolument sauver les patrimoines bidons en assurance vie des vieux goinfres, et la sur consommation à crédit de la France, financée par les intérêts payés par les PIIGS... C'est tout ce qui compte !

EU To Greece: "We Want To Help You Help Yourself"... And We Want To Own You After You File For Bankruptcy
ZeroHedge, 07/05/2011 (traduire en Français texte en anglais )
→ lien
So for those wondering what happened at last night's secret finance minister meeting, one one hand, as Dow Jones reports, Greece "asked its euro-zone partners to ease the country's deficit targets as it struggles to comply with strict austerity terms set under last year's financial bailout agreement, a senior euro-zone government official said Saturday. The senior official said Greece acknowledged that it is unlikely to be able to return to the bond market next year and might need to tap the European Financial Stability Facility, the EU's new bailout fund, for funding. A German proposal to possibly extend the maturities of Greek debt falling due in 2012 also was discussed, this person said. Athens has a long-term borrowing requirement of EUR27 billion in 2012. "Greece has asked for the deficit targets to be eased, specifically to push the budget deficit target of 3% of GDP in 2014 forward by at least two years."" Alas, as expected the latest panhandling attempt by Greece was met with abject failure: "No decisions were taken, according to the Commission's statement. Greece's request for easier terms didn't win the assent of Germany and other participants in Friday's meeting, according to a senior European official." In other words, the country is on autopilot, and possibly worse.

Per Bloomberg: "European Union officials may require Greece to provide collateral for aid as policy makers struggle to prevent the euro area’s first sovereign debt restructuring, said a person with direct knowledge of the situation."In other words, for the first time since Weimar, a country may soon be forced to collateralize superpriority debt issuance to foreign creditors: an exercise not really seen in international politics since the Weimar war reparations... and at least Germany had its own currency back then. Summary: the EU just told Greece to prepare for Debtor in Possession loan issuance. Basically should Greece default, and it will, the Parthenon will go to Germany, Santorini will go to Luxembourg, Piraeos will likely end up in IMF hands, and the Chinese will own the rest. Welcome to sovereign debt restructurings for the 21st century.

“We need to help Greece help itself. What’s the alternative? We don’t want to be pushed over the edge into restructuring.”

Fréquentation du blog

Un petit point mensuel sur le blog...

La fréquentation est en légère baisse, mais c'est dû au fait que j'ai séparé début avril dans mon google analytics les infos du nain du trésor du nain pour avoir un suivi séparé. Ça enlève 50 visites par jour environ...


Sur mon autre suivi que je fais avec le petit compteur qui s'affiche sur la page, et qui reste commun aux deux blogs, comme précedemment, la courbe continue de grimpouiller tranquillement.


Au classement wikio, pour ce que ça vaut, le blog est 49ème des blogs éco, contre 45ème le mois dernier. Typiquement, le blog à Lupus est 13ème, surement à cause de tous les liens que je mets vers leur blog   

Sur la droite du blog, j'ai rajouté un petit widget de sondage, pour ceux qui ne l'auraient pas vu.

Et enfin, comme tous les mois, je remercie les généreux donateurs du mois. 3 ce mois ci qui ont donné en tout 35€.

USA : Les stocks de maisons en foreclosures des GSE baissent tout doucement

Total Fannie, Freddie, FHA REO inventory declined in Q1, Fannie and Freddie REO Sales at Record Levels
Calculated Risk, 06/05/2011 (traduire en Français texte en anglais )
→ lien


Mais bon, je ne sais pas vraiment ce que vaut ce graphique vu qu'ils ont massivement arrêté les foreclosures avec l'histoire du MERS et autres scandales de paperasses illégales...

C'est samedi, on ramasse les morts

Une nano banque cette semaine, pour 13 millions de $ pour la FDIC. Je ne mets pas à jour les graphes pour si peu...

  Mise à jour des données : FDIC.xls

Pour les lecteurs de la chronique agora

Bill Bonner sort un livre avec ses meilleurs chroniques entre 1999 et 2010 :

Dice Have No Memory
The Big Picture, 02/05/2011 (traduire en Français texte en anglais )
→ lien
The book gathers Bonner’s richest insights from August 1999 to November 2010 to form a chronological narrative of economics in America, broken down by topic. Written with clarity and conviction, this compendium is a rebuke of anyone who claims “No one saw this coming,” from the bursting tech and housing bubbles, to the boondoggles of governments across the world.

Et le chapitre 5 :
CH5 Borrowing against the American Dream

Le gouverment US EST le crédit à la consommation

De la dette publique pour investir qu'on vous dit   

Here Is Who Is Funding Consumer Credit YTD
ZeroHedge, 06/05/2011 (traduire en Français texte en anglais )
→ lien
  Evolution du crédit à la consommation :


  Changements dans le crédit à la consommation détenu au bilan, entre aujourd'hui et l'année dernière :

Regardez qui qui donc qu'on retrouve à gauche...

Et en bonus... Puisqu'on prle du déficit public US...

Le Trésor demande 2000 milliards de $ de plafond en plus pour tenir jusque fin 2012... Bref... Ça sera crâmé mi 2012, avec de la chance...
US Treasury Tells Lawmakers It Needs $2 Trillion In Debt Capacity
ZeroHedge, 04/05/2011 (traduire en Français texte en anglais )
→ lien
Reuters reports that the US Treasury has informed lawmakers it needs a $2 trillion debt limit increase to operate... until the end of 2012. Better stated, this is 112% of US GDP (which will soon be declining).


Le plafond approche :
Getting Close Now
ZeroHedge, 04/05/2011 (traduire en Français texte en anglais )
→ lien


Et le plafond va être explosé avant que celui ci ne soit remonté...
Treasury Hopes To Issue $72 Billion In New 3,10, 30 Year Bonds Next Week, Even As Capacity Now Just $30 Billion
ZeroHedge, 04/05/2011 (traduire en Français texte en anglais )
→ lien
Next week will be interesting. Even as the Treasury is scrambling to find debt ceiling expansion options (for a complete analysis see this post from January) it has just released its most recent refunding statement, according to which it hopes to issue $72 billion in 3 Year, 10 Year and 30 Year bonds. What is interesting is that completely contrary to expectations, and to recent Treasury announcements, while the UST was expected to issue $69 billion this time around, it actually increased each issue by $1 billion. So much for that promise that the Treasury will need to borrow less.


Update on Debt Ceiling Charade
The Wall Street Journal via Calculated Risk, 04/05/2011 (traduire en Français texte en anglais )
→ lien
The WSJ has an update on the charade: GOP, White House Talk Deal on Debt

GOP leaders and the White House are discussing a deal that would enact strict deficit targets and some spending cuts ... The deal would defer contentious decisions about Medicare, Medicaid and taxes until after the 2012 elections.
...
Targets that would aim to bring the deficit below 3% of gross domestic product by 2015 ...
Mais oui mais oui   

Et Bill Gross de Pimco, toujours ultra motivé pour acheter de ce papier gras bien rance :
Bill Gross: "The Treasury Market Is On A Collision Course With Financial Repression"
via ZeroHedgeBill Gross, 03/05/2011 (traduire en Français texte en anglais )
→ lien
holding Treasuries at these yield levels for an extended period of time represents an abdication of responsibility.

The Treasury market is on a collision course with financial repression and it is time to adjust your rudder to starboard to get home safely.

Aux USA aussi, la croulantocratie s'accroche à ses fausses promesses

Americans 45 and older are new voting-age majority
AP via google, 04/05/2011 (traduire en Français texte en anglais )
→ lien
For the first time, Americans 45 and older make up a majority of the voting-age population, giving older Americans wider influence in elections as the U.S. stands divided over curtailing Medicare and other benefits for seniors.

Based on actual election turnout, which is higher for older Americans, census data show that baby boomers and seniors ages 45 and older represent about 60 percent of voters in national races, judging by the 2008 presidential race. Nearly 1 out of 2 voters is 50 or older.

"Boomers have now crossed the line between thinking about Medicare and Social Security as an issue for their parents, to being worried about it for themselves," said William H. Frey, a demographer at Brookings Institution who did a broad analysis of available census data. "More so than their parents, boomers face increasing costs of medical care and the risk that government pensions will need to substitute for downturns in their 401k plans.

"Their interest in the viability of Medicare should be priority one for politicians seeking office, especially in aging regions of the country," he said.

La lutte des classes, mon cul   La lutte des âges oui !

L'échec systémique

Encore Charles Hugh Smith d'Of Two Minds...

Y'a du Niall Ferguson dans celui là...

Failure: Don't Despair, It's The New Normal
of two minds, Charles Hugh Smith, 04/05/2011 (traduire en Français texte en anglais )
→ lien
The Central State (Federal government) and the Federal Reserve are both failing institutions. Their policies, assumptions and mindsets have only one end-state: devolution and collapse. After the old institutions have imploded, some new sustainable, honorable version may arise; this is possible but not guaranteed. Nobody knows the future, and life is contingent.

Institutions are like organisms: they have a life-cycle and exist in a wider ecology. Our current institutions are in the Failing Stage of their lifecycle, where simulacra "reforms" and facsimiles of "change" are presented in lieu of true systemic refomation.

This strategy is based in the institution's politics of experience: real transformation would require their constituencies to lose some measure of income, power and perquisites, and since every fiefdom within the institution will deploy all its formidable resources to self-preservation, then real reform is rendered impossible.

The basic mechanism of this expansion and fatal resistance to reform/change is "the ratchet effect": expansions of staff, reach, power and revenues are frictionless and exciting--the cog wheel of bureaucracy advances easily. But when the institution expands beyond its carrying capacity, beyond the efficiencies reaped from advancing complexity and scale, i.e. to mission creep, bloat and sclerosis, then any reduction in staffing, reach, power and revenues are resisted with iron fortitude and the desperation of an organism fighting for its life.

I prepared this chart to illustrate the life-cycle of bureaucracy:
En bleu, la partie utile de l'Etat, le front office. En rouge, la rente et la bureaucratie...

As revenue declines and pressure for real reform mounts, the embattled institutions find that propaganda and facsimiles of reform are "cheaper" "solutions" than real reform. This is the key driver behind the flood of propaganda, bogus statistical "proof" of "recovery," and all the phony "reforms" laid out in 3,000 pages of befuddling bureaucratic self-preservation.

Real reform would mean powerful constituencies would have to take real reductions in staffing, power, benefits and in their share of the national income. Rather than reveal this double-bind--reform is impossible but the Status Quo is unsustainable--the institution deploys its gargantuan resources to laying down a smoke-screen of bogus "reforms," distracting sideshows and ginned-up statistics to "prove" that "we're really changing things around here, yes-siree, and things are getting better and better, every day and in every way."

But it's all deception and lies. Nothing has truly been changed or reformed; another layer of self-preservation has been added to an already bloated defense of perquisites and power.

America's institutions are like stars about to go super-nova. They have increased in size to the point where their mass guarantees that once their energy source (as measured in fossil fuels and money) falls below a certain threshold, the institution will collapse inward on itself.

Until then, the best that we can do is to avoid official entanglements, lower pour own cost basis, pay off debt owed to the Death Star Financial System and reduce pour dependency on the institutions which are currently expanding in the final stages before they go super-nova and implode.

And don't take it personally if things fall apart around you. We're all doing pour best, but we can't control everything around us.