|Oil markets brace for Saudi 'rage' as global spare capacity wears thin|
|The Daily Telegraph, Ambrose Evans Pritchard, 08/03/2011 (traduire en Français )|
Goldman Sachs suspects that OPEC has been pumping far above its agreed quota since November and therefore cannot easily raise output much without cutting deep into global spare capacity.Bon après, c'est l'avis de Goldman Sachs. Ça en dit toujours plus sur leur propre position sur les marchés que sur la vérité...
Jeff Currie, the bank's oil guru, said Saudi output had quietly crept up by 700,000 barrels a day (bpd) even before the Libyan supply shock.
Assumptions that OPEC has added 1.9m bpd over the last two years are wishful thinking. These new fields have been "largely offset" by attrition in old fields.
"We believe that OPEC spare capacity has already dropped below 2m bpd. The question therefore arises how much spare capacity is left to absorb potential supply disruptions in other countries," he said.
The flow of Libyan oil has so far fallen by 1m bpd. This may not sound much against global supply of 88m, but oil prices are determined by levels of spare capacity once supply tightens.
Chris Skrebowski, editor of Petroleum Review, said the long-denied oil crunch is starting to bite.
A Wikileaks cable cited a Saudi geologist claiming that the kingdom's reserves had been overstated by 40pc. A second cable questioned whether the Saudis "any longer have the power to drive prices down for a prolonged period".
The threats aim to quash a "Day or Rage" planned by cyber-protesters for Friday, allegedy swollen to 17,000. A similar event in Syria was nipped in the bud by secret police.
The world's economic fate now hangs on the success of Wahabi repression.
Nobody knows where the "inflexion point" is. Bank of America says we are already in the danger zone since energy costs as a share of global GDP have reached 8.5pc, near historic peaks.