Là où il aurait fallu faire le tri dès le début à la pince à épiler dans le tas de purin de la dette pourrie européenne pour en séparer le bon grain de l'ivraie, voila que l'Allemagne se prépare peut-être à foutre un bâton de dynamite au milieu, histoire de repeindre les murs, impression mouchetée garantie...
|September 23: The Beginning Of The End For Merkel... And The Eurozone?|
|ZeroHedge, 28/08/2011 (traduire en Français )|
as Reuters reports, Merkel's disappointing response to an ever escalating set of crises, both domestic and international, means that the beginning of her end (and by implication of the Eurozone, and of the Euro) may be as soon as September 23, when the vote over the expansion of the latest and greatest European bailout lynchpin, EFSF, will take place.
To wit: "Germany's Angela Merkel faces the biggest challenge to her leadership since coming to power in 2005, with traditionally loyal conservative allies openly criticizing her approach to the euro zone crisis and her hands-off Libya policy in shambles....it is Merkel's piecemeal approach to the euro zone's worsening debt crisis that has come under fire over the past week and now threatens her iron grip on power in Germany." The biggest problem for Merkel is that she has gone "Japanese" in the opinion of the public: doing neither nothing, nor enough, to halt the European crisis in its tracks: "For some in Germany, she has gone too far by bailing out stricken euro zone members and agreeing to intervention in the bond markets to prop them up. For others at home and abroad, she has not done enough, shirking bold steps that might solve the debt crisis because they would be unpopular at home." This latest attempt to placate everyone, while achieving precisely the opposite, will come to a head on September 23 when the vote to expand the EFSF takes place: she is for the time being expected to have a sufficient number of votes to pass the critical for the eurozone proposal. "If it's not enough, Merkel would be forced to resign. It would lead to a crisis."
|German Coalition Partner CSU To Propose Bankruptcy Procedure To Kick Out Chronic Eurozone Debtor Nations|
|ZeroHedge, 28/08/2011 (traduire en Français )|
The news out of Europe just keeps getting worse.
what is worse, according to Der Spiegel, tomorrow CDU coalition partner CSU will likely propose several "explosive ideas" which not only reject a common "economic government" for the eurozone (thereby slapping Sarkozy fully across the face), but also consider "creating a bankruptcy procedure to kick out of the euro countries that aren't willing to stick to the debt limits laid out in the euro zone's Stability and Growth Pact."
L'élastique du racket déguisé en fausse sôlidarité va péter :
|Euro bail-out in doubt as 'hysteria' sweeps Germany|
|The Telegraph, Ambrose Evans Pritchard, 28/08/2011 (traduire en Français )|
Mrs Merkel has cancelled a high-profile trip to Russia on September 7, the crucial day when the package goes to the Bundestag and the country's constitutional court rules on the legality of the EU's bail-out machinery.
If the court rules that the €440bn rescue fund (EFSF) breaches Treaty law or undermines German fiscal sovereignty, it risks setting off an instant brushfire across monetary union.
The seething discontent in Germany over Europe's debt crisis has spread to all the key institutions of the state. "Hysteria is sweeping Germany " said Klaus Regling, the EFSF's director.
German media reported that the latest tally of votes in the Bundestag shows that 23 members from Mrs Merkel's own coalition plan to vote against the package, including twelve of the 44 members of Bavaria's Social Christians (CSU). This may force the Chancellor to rely on opposition votes, risking a government collapse.
Christian Wulff, Germany's president, stunned the country last week by accusing the European Central Bank of going "far beyond its mandate" with mass purchases of Spanish and Italian debt, and warning that the Europe's headlong rush towards fiscal union stikes at the "very core" of democracy. "Decisions have to be made in parliament in a liberal democracy. That is where legitimacy lies," he said.
A day earlier the Bundesbank had fired its own volley, condemning the ECB's bond purchases and warning the EU is drifting towards debt union without "democratic legitimacy" or treaty backing.
Et pendant ce temps, le 1 an grec atteind 60%
|Greece 1-Yr Rate 60%; Finland Retains Collateral Demand; Multiple Veto Points; ECB "Litmus Test" Coming Up; Germany Accuses ECB of Treaty Violations|
|Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis, Mike Shedlock, 28/08/2011 (traduire en Français )|
Once again the bond markets have spoken, and once again the message is the same: default. Greek two-year bonds are near 44%, having touched as high as 46%. The interest rate on 1-year Greek government debt is a stunning 59.8%.
Kiss a Larger EFSF Goodbye
Kiss a larger EFSF goodbye unless 17 nations all agree to raise the pool to a collective to the proposed €2.2 trillion from the current €440 billion pool.
Kiss a larger EFSF goodbye unless Greece offers hard collateral
Kiss a larger EFSF goodbye unless German courts rubberstamp the EU summit deals
Kiss a larger EFSF goodbye unless 90 percent of investors agree to the deal
In other words, kiss a larger EFSF goodbye, expect a test of the ECB's Italian, Spanish, and Portuguese bond purchasing power, and expect a German court test that in-and-of-itself would settle this matter once and for all.
Even if the German courts approve the deal, there are still more than 17 points of failure, counting investors.
One way or another Greece will default. The sooner the better, actually.
Le financement des banques françaises, massivement dépendant du crédit interbancaire (puisque notre super taux d'épargne n'est qu'une vaste farce), de plus en plus délicat :
|Europe's Funding Scramble: Peeking Below The Calm Surface Waters Of French Bank Liquidity (And Lack Thereof)|
|ZeroHedge, 29/08/2011 (traduire en Français )|
- Total financial CP outstanding is down 15%, or $90bn, since the start of June. Foreign bank outstandings are down nearly 20%, accounting for almost half of the decline in total financial CP over the period.
- WAMs have shortened as issuance piles up in overnights and replaces longer tenor (3m) paper. Average overall daily financial CP issuance has fallen to $3.5bn since June – down more than 50% from the average pace between January and May.