Toujours l'Europe

La France et les Pays Bas suivent l'Allemagne et refusent la mise en place d'eurobonds :

Bunds Rise on French Backing for German Rejection of More Aid

Bloomberg, 09/12/2010 (traduire en Français  )

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France backs Germany’s resistance to increasing the size of the European Union bailout fund and to joint euro-area bonds, a French official told reporters today.

Euro bonds are an “implicit transfer of money to other countries,” Wellink, the Dutch central bank chief, told reporters in Frankfurt yesterday. Creating euro bonds would be “a very intransparent way of burden sharing,” he said.

Sinon, grosses manifestations de jeunes à Londres aujourd'hui, contre le passage des frais universitaires de 3000£ à 9000£ par an, alors que la croulantocratie, issue de la révolution "libérale" de 68, essaie sans surprise de faire porter tout le poids de l'ajustement sur les jeunes, d'instaurer l'héritocratie et de revenir à l'ancien régime...

Une manifestation étudiante tourne au chaos à Londres

radio-canada, 09/12/2010 (en Français  )

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Des milliers d'étudiants universitaires furieux que le gouvernement conservateur britannique veuille tripler leurs droits de scolarité ont manifesté à Londres, jeudi.

Les gaz lacrimogènes lancés par les manifestants et les nombreux coups de matraque des autorités ont fait plusieurs blessés de part et d'autre, d'après les observations de l'AFP et de la police. Quelques feux ont aussi été allumés.

Le chaos était total au milieu de pancartes portant des slogans comme « Éducation pour les masses » ou « Supprimez les frais universitaires et les coupes budgétaires », ou encore des messages antipoliciers.

Le vote est passé quand même tout à l'heure...

Et la voiture du Prince Charles et de Camilla s'est faite caillasser...

Dette des PIIGS : la BCE est la seule acheteuse

Commentaire d'un gusse d'un desk de trading... Repris par ZeroHedge. Information à prendre avec des pincettes donc...

Eurobond Trading Desk Commentary: "The ECB Is The Only Buyer Out There Right Now"

ZeroHedge, 09/12/2010 (traduire en Français  )

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ZeroHedge : If anyone was concerned that someone may be stupid enough to believe the vomitorium of lies and deceit coming out of Europe on a millisecondly basis, we are hereby happy to assuage your fears. Courtesy of a very spot on trading desk comment, we can confirm that nobody but the ECB is buying Greek, Portuguese, and Irish bonds.

Commentaire : For what its worth, in conversation w/ one of my bond guys, it seems as though people are still fearing the EUR debacle. attached is the bid list that the ECB sends them each morning with prices they are willing to buy at and MS sales will go into their clients who own the bonds and submit bids. ECB is the only buyer out there right now.

Le Z1 de la FED nouveau est arrivé

Le flow of funds de la FED.

En attendant que Denninger mette à jour ses graphiques de la dette totale rapportée au PIB, en voici quelques uns de ZeroHedge et de Calculated Risk :

Tout d'abord le patrimoine et la dette :

Household Net Worth Jumps By $1.2 Trillion In Q3, All Due To Stock Market Gains As Deleveraging Continues For 10th Straight Quarter

ZeroHedge, 09/12/2010 (traduire en Français  )

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  Le patrimoine des américains :


  La dette des ménages :


  La dette des entreprises :


  La dette publique :

On voit que le gouvernement s'endette comme une grosse otarie bourrée à la bière, que les ménages essaient de se désendetter. La dette des entreprises, elle, est plate et même légèrement à la hausse...


Et le patrimoine total, en pourcentage du PIB, mieux isolé sur Calculated Risk :

Q3 Flow of Funds: Household Real Estate assets declined $650 Billion in Q3 2010

Calculated Risk, 09/12/2010 (traduire en Français  )

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Et aussi le seul patrimoine immobilier et la dette immobilière :

Fitch abaisse la note de l'Irlande de 3 crans

Outch !

L'agence de notation Fitch abaisse la note de l'Irlande de trois crans, à "BBB+"

France 24, 09/12/2010 (en Français  )

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L'agence de notation financière Fitch a dégradé la note de l'Irlande, soumise à la pression des marchés en raison de l'explosion de ses déficits, de trois crans, à "BBB+" contre "A+" auparavant, a-t-elle annoncé jeudi dans un communiqué.

L'Irlande est quand même passée de 20 à 6 en moins de 2 ans...   


Mais les marchés s'en tapent... Même pas mal...

Réactions mesurées du marché à la dégradation de l'Irlande

AWP via Romandie News, 09/12/2010 (traduire en Français  )

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A 18H00 HEC (17H00 GMT), les taux longs irlandais se détendaient à 7,975% contre 8,016% la veille à la même heure, ne réagissant pas à cette information déjà prise en compte par le marché.

Du coup, je vous mets à jour ma note maison de la zone euro :




  Données sources : NoteZoneEuro.xls

USA : mini krach obligataire sur les obligations des collectivités locales

Après les muni bonds, voici les Build America Bonds...

Chart Of The Day: Build America Bond Yields Hit 11 Month High

ZeroHedge, 08/12/2010 (traduire en Français  )

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Yesterday's highlighted chart was the plunge in the 30 Year bond. Today, we take it one step further and demonstrate what happens to an asset class once it become clear (or unclear) that the government may not prop it in perpetuity.

  Taux des Build America Bonds :

The average yield on the taxable securities climbed to 6.35 percent yesterday, the most since Jan. 7, as investors demanded a larger premium to buy the debt, according to a Wells Fargo index.

Les banques suisses ne veulent pas rendre à leurs clients l'or et l'argent qu'elles ont en gardiennage chez elles

Surement parce qu'elles ne l'ont plus depuis longtemps, même si les zozos payent des frais de gardiennage...

Turk - Swiss Bank Client Battles Over 2 Months For His Silver

King World News, James Turk, 08/12/2010 (traduire en Français  )

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I found that Jim Rickards comments about the individual who had difficulty getting $40 million of gold out of the Swiss bank where he had it stored very interesting. I could tell you several stories of similar experiences.

Let me just cite one example that is ongoing. This individual has been storing with a Swiss bank twenty bars (1,000 ounce bars) of silver which has a market value today of just over $550,000. So, it’s not only large transactions that are affected, but small ones too.

When I last emailed this individual a couple of weeks ago, he was still trying to get his silver from this Swiss bank. This has been going on for over two months, and again we are only talking about 20,000 ounces of silver. This may seem unimaginable to some people, but I had told this individual in September when he contacted me that I had seen this problem repeatedly with other people.

He was quite confident that he wouldn’t have a problem getting his silver because he had been paying storage fees on it since buying it in the late 1990’s. The Swiss bank is insisting that he take cash, but he is demanding his silver which is supposed to be sitting in the bank’s vault be delivered to him. As I said before Eric, I know of other examples like this one.

Circling back around to the Jim Rickards interview, he ended with some very good advice, with which I wholeheartedly agree. Make sure your gold and silver are stored outside of the banking system.

Bon à prendre avec des pincettes quand même... King World News, c'est pas la source la plus sûre et objective qui soit. Surtout quand ça parle d'or. Et surtout que James Turk est le directeur de Goldmoney. Et il aurait tout intérêt à pipoter pour attirer des clients chez lui...

Mais à suivre quand même...

Deux documents sur la Chine

Tout d'abord celui-ci de JP Morgan, sur l'inflation en Chine, et la part des différents postes de consommation dans le budget moyen des chinois (la nourriture représente 34% du budget du chinois moyen) :

In Advance Of PBoC Rate Hike This Friday, Here Are All The Chinese Charts That's Fit To Print

JP Morgan via ZeroHedge, 08/12/2010 (traduire en Français  )

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china jpm 8.12.

Et aussi celui-ci, de HSBC, qui rentre dans le détail du pays, province par province :

The Definitive Guide To China - Must Read

HSBC via ZeroHedge, 08/12/2010 (traduire en Français  )

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Some of the key observations:
   This “bottom up” perspective on China, rather than the usual “top down” one, has thrown up some extraordinary statistics.
   By 2020, China will have six provinces with an annual GDP of more than USD1 trillion, equal to six countries the size of Russia (or Spain or Canada).
   With 47% of the population now living in cities, eight Chinese cities have a population of more than 10m, and 93 have more than 5m. By comparison, in the US only New York City has a population of more than 5m.
   Beijing, China’s Washington DC, is also China’s Silicon Valley. Its Zhongguancun area saw 23 high-tech IPOs in 2009, against just one for Silicon Valley. There have been another 35 IPOs so far in 2010.
   Kunshan, one of 2,000 county-level cities, produces more than half of the world’s notebook PCs, or 85m units – and yet IT manufacturing is not even its top-ranked industry.
   Suzhou, one of 280 prefecture-level cities, has a per capita GDP which is 70% and 46% higher than Beijing and Shanghai, respectively.
   Jiangsu, a province little known to outsiders, is poised to overtake the much better-known southern province of Guangdong to become China’s largest provincial economy as early as 2012.
   The 1.5m inhabitants of Erdos, a city rich in natural resources in the otherwise poor western part of the country, will have a higher GDP per capita than Hong Kong in three years time.
   Among the 1m villages – the lowest unit in the administrative chain – there are some extraordinary contrasts, for example, between the fiercely-capitalist Huaxi, where every ex-farmer is a millionaire, and the communist Nanjie, where collective interests still prevail over those of individuals.

First, sizzling growth should continue for at least another five years. Local governments have managed to beat Beijing’s growth targets by a few percentage points every year since 1980. Published data for the coming 12th Five-Year Plan from 2011 to 2015 show most provinces remain ambitious in their targets.

Second, these growth ambitions have increased inter-regional competition. Provinces have far more ambitious plans for the expansion of their rail networks and clean energy activities than those stipulated by national targets. In some cases, the local target is double the national one. One reason for this is that to get promoted in China, you have to outperform your peers.

The danger, however, is that over-investment leads to overcapacity. For example, Kunshan’s strong position in IT is being challenged by the municipality of Chongqing. Together they could soon supply 80 per cent of the world’s notebook PCs – raising concentration risks as well as oversupply concerns.

Third, overcapacity may lead to bad credits. For example, a recent report submitted by the China Academy of Science to the State Council raised concerns about unsustainable debt levels and the risk of loss-making activities. It noted that the 1,000km Wuhan to Guangzhou bullet train, which started operating earlier this year, was running at less than half its capacity and would never make enough money to pay off the loans used to finance it.

A Guide to China's Regions, Provinces and Cities

Ron Paul à la tête du comité de politique monétaire du congrès

Voila qui va surement embêter la FED...

Ron Paul Claims Chairmanship of Monetary Policy Subcommittee, Prepared to Subpoena Fed

Freedom Watch via Mike Shedlock, 09/12/2010 (traduire en Français  )

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USA : le désendettement des consommateurs continue

Encours des crédits à la consommation revolving (courbe bleue) ou non revolving (courbe rouge) aux USA :

Consumer Deleveraging Continues

The Big Picture, 08/12/2010 (traduire en Français  )

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Les vrais coupables de la crise

Un petit documentaire très didactique, qui a le mérite de ne pas accabler que les banquiers mais aussi les pseudo ouineurs de l'immobilier qui se sont endettés ras la gueule pour devenir "riches" en surfant sur la bulle...

Véritables suce-sang goinfrés à la Ponzi monnaie et qui ne manquent évidemment jamais de se poser en victimes le jour où leurs paris bullesques se retournent...

Le fait que les prix de l'immobilier montent de 10% par an, faut croire que c'est aussi un acquis "social"...

Ecoland – Bubble story

The Big Picture, 09/12/2010 (traduire en Français  )

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Ecoland - Bubble story from Denis van Waerebeke on Vimeo.