Rosenberg et Dontigny : même combat

Sa stratégie d'investissement : le SIRP (Safety & Income at a Reasonable Price). L'essentiel, ce n'est pas le retour sur investissement, mais le retour de l'investissement...

Déflation, vainqueur par KO

David Rosenberg On What Happens When The Glorious 30 Year Great Bull Market In Bonds Comes To An End

ZeroHedge, 29/07/2010 (traduire en Français  )

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/david-rosenberg-what-happens-when-glorious-30-year-great-bull-market-bonds-comes-end

For now, we are not even close. Sentiment toward long bonds and inflation are still extreme and recent survey data show the typical balanced institutional portfolio manager with a 68% allocation towards equities. As for bonds, the yield on 30 year Treasury was recently core CPI plus 3%; 4% for a BBB corporate bond; and a 6% real yield in the BB space. The S&P 500, meanwhile, sports a P/E multiple of close to 15x and the dividend yield is barely over 2%.

In this light, it would seem highly appropriate to maintain a SIRP – Safety & Income at a Reasonable Price – strategy for the near- and intermediate-term, while keeping a close eye on the exit plan from this recommendation, though that could still be a few years down the road.

Et les actions sont hors de prix...   

"A Modern-Day Depression": Rosenberg Sees "Tough Slogging" for the Economy

yahoo tech ticker, Aaron Task, 29/07/2010 (traduire en Français  )

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/%22a-modern-day-depression%22-rosenberg-sees-%22tough-slogging%22-for-the-economy-535274.html

Et déjà on parle de Quantitative Easing version 2 alors que les USA semblent partis rejoindre le destin du Japon...

When see deflation, chop down more trees

The Big Picture, 29/07/2010 (traduire en Français  )

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/07/when-see-deflation-chop-down-more-trees/

Fed Pres Bullard is saying “The US is closer to a Japanese style outcome today than at any time in recent history. A better policy response to a negative shock is to expand the QE program thru the purchases of Treasury securities.”

QE 2.0 Or QE 1.999: GSEs And FHA Are Preparing Auto-Refi Program Taking Millions To Current Market Rates Overnight

ZeroHedge, 29/07/2010 (traduire en Français  )

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/qe-20-or-qe-1999-gses-and-fha-are-preparing-auto-refi-program-taking-millions-borrowers-curr

As Mark Hanson suggests based on speculation by both MS and ML (oddly enough released concurrently, MS report attached below), the GSEs and the FHA may be preparing to imminently launch an instant auto-refi program which would take millions of borrowers to current market rates overnight! In the process $45 billion of consumer savings would be created. Welcome QE 1.999.

De l'efficacité des stress tests

L'Euribor n'en finit toujours pas de grimper... C'est dire si la confiance est revenue entre banques...



C'est pourtant pas faute d'avoir fait défiler tous les experts en propagande, relations publiques et autres lobbyistes sur BFM Radio   

Europe : des banques se préparent à la sortie d'un pays de la zone euro

C'est dans le Financial Times, repris goulument par ZeroHedge :

ISDA Approaches European Banks To Prepare For Eurozone Ejection Contingency

Financial Times via ZeroHedge, 29/07/2010 (traduire en Français  )

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/isda-approaches-european-banks-prepare-eurozone-ejection-contingency

While those close to the process believe the likelihood of such an event is remote, the sovereign debt crisis of recent months has led banks and other firms to start questioning what impact it could have.

The moves are at an early stage and it is still unclear who would be part of the group.

One person close to the process said that because of the sensitivity of the issue only a small number of members, about 12, predominantly banks but also investors, had been approached.

Bill Gross : démographie et déflation

Mike Shedlock exulte alors que Bill Gross qui gère le fonds Pimco reprend les thèses des déflationnistes et nous gratifie dans sa lettre mensuelle d'une ode à l'inévitable déflation pour cause de vieillissement (ce à quoi Shedlock précise que c'est surtout à cause du surendettement)...

Bill Gross Ponders "Deep Demographic Doo-Doo"

Pimco, Bill Gross, via Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis, 29/07/2010 (traduire en Français  )

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/07/bill-gross-ponders-deep-demographic-doo.html

Bill Gross : Observers will point out, as shown in the following chart, that global population growth rates have been declining since 1970 with no apparent ill effects. True, until 2008, I suppose. The fact is that since the 1970s we have never really experienced a secular period during which the private market could effectively run on its own engine without artificial asset price stimulation. The lack of population growth was likely a significant factor in the leveraging of the developed world’s financial systems and the ballooning of total government and private debt as a percentage of GDP from 150% to over 300% in the United States, for example. Lacking an accelerating population base, all developed countries promoted the financing of more and more consumption per capita in order to maintain existing GDP growth rates. Finally, in the U.S., with consumption at 70% of GDP and a household sector deeply in debt, there was nowhere to go but down. Similar conditions exist in most developed economies.



The danger today, as opposed to prior deleveraging cycles, is that the deleveraging is being attempted into the headwinds of a structural demographic downwave as opposed to a decade of substantial population growth. Japan is the modern-day example of what deleveraging in the face of a slowing and now negatively growing population can do.

The preceding analysis does not even begin to discuss the aging of this slower-growing population base itself. Japan, Germany, Italy and of course the United States, with its boomers moving toward their 60s, are getting older year after year. Even China with their previous one baby policy faces a similar demographic. And while older people spend a larger percentage of their income – that is, they save less and eventually dissave – the fact is that they spend far fewer dollars per capita than their younger counterparts. No new homes, fewer vacations, less emphasis on conspicuous consumption and no new cars every few years. Healthcare is their primary concern. These aging trends present a one-two negative punch to our New Normal thesis over the next 5–10 years: fewer new consumers in terms of total population, and a growing number of older ones who don’t spend as much money. The combined effect will slow economic growth more than otherwise.

PIMCO’s continuing New Normal thesis of deleveraging, reregulation and deglobalization produces structural headwinds that lead to lower economic growth as well as half-sized asset returns when compared to historical averages. The New Normal will not be aided nor abetted by a slower-growing population nor by cyclical policy errors that thrust Keynesian consumption remedies on a declining consumer base. Current deficit spending that seeks to maintain an artificially high percentage of consumer spending can be compared to flushing money down an economic toilet.

Une thèse intéressante comme quoi le ralentissement de la démographie a été une des raisons du surendettement généralisé afin de pouvoir continuer à "croître" alors que la population n'augmentait plus assez vite...

Et sinon, ce que j'en comprends, c'est qu'il n'y a aucun moyen d'échapper à la baisse du PIB, et donc à la récession.

Mike Shedlock : Recognition Phase

I have been talking about these trends for quite some time. The fact that Bill Gross is discussing these trends now is part of the "Recognition Phase".

Bear in mind that Robert Prechter figured this out decades ago, far before most anyone else, indeed far too soon to do him or anyone else any good. Consumers figured it out a year ago. Mainstream media of which Bill Gross is an early practitioner is just starting to catch on. Bill Gross is behind bloggers, but he is far ahead of most of his peers.

By the time mainstream media fully embraces these trends we will be two thirds through it. Such is the nature of the game.

Brutal Combination

Please note that it is not demographics per se that is doing us in, but rather enormous amounts of consumer debt (as a result of decades of Keynesian and Monetarist stimulus) in conjunction with unfavorable demographics and global wage arbitrage that is doing us in. Bill Gross missed this essential point.

Grèce : la lutte à mort commence, le droit de grève remis en cause

C'est parti. En Grèce, la lutte à mort commence entre banksters, ploutocrates, prédateurs sociaux de tous genres et corporatismes à capacité de nuisance maximale pour défendre l' "acquis social", et savoir qui va palper les fruits du dépeçage de ce qui reste de classes moyennes libres...

Alors que les conducteurs de camions citernes sont en grève depuis 3 jours en Grèce pour défendre leur "acquis social" et leurs petites rentes, et empêcher que leur secteur soit ouvert à la concurrence (  ), ils assèchent littéralement toutes les stations essence du pays et menacent de paralyser toute l'activité d'un pays qui ne peut vraiment pas se le permettre.

Et l'État menace de 5 ans de prison les grévistes.

Il y a 10 jours, c'étaient les contrôleurs du ciel (dont tout le monde sait qu'ils sont vraiment à plaindre) qui bloquaient le transit aérien vers Athènes...   

Greek Government Resorts To Wartime Emergency Act: Threatens Economy-Paralyzing Strikers With Prison Time

ZeroHedge, 29/07/2010 (traduire en Français  )

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/greek-government-resorts-wartime-emergency-act-threatens-economy-paralyzing-strikers-prison-

the Greek government has just issued a war-time emergency decree which forces striking truck drivers of fuel-tankers to get back to work or face criminal charges and up to five years of jail time

As Market News reports, "The drivers had been on strike for three days through Wednesday, protesting a government effort to open up their profession, which is part of the austerity package agreed by Greece in exchange for up to E100 billion in loans from the Eurozone and the IMF. About 70% of gas station owners say they have run out of supplies, while shortages of food and other goods have also been reported, affecting tourism at peak season."

Le problème est le même que pour les taxis à Paris avec des licences revendues de génération en génération une fortune et des travailleurs qui achètent leur charge, et veulent empêcher par tous les moyens que de nouveaux entrants puissent arriver et faire baisser le prix de leur charge achetée à prix d'or. Bref, c'est moyen-âgeux...

Earlier Wednesday, discussions between the truckers union and the socialist government had collapsed and drivers vowed to continue the strike indefinitely. They complain that under the government plan, licenses to new drivers would be issued for much less than they paid, thereby putting them at a disadvantage.

On va gentiment regarder les prédateurs de tous genres se battre entre eux. On ne sait pas encore qui des ploutocrates et des moustachus va gagner. Mais de toutes façons, une chose est sûre : ce sont comme d'habitude les sans grade et les sans capacité de nuisance qui vont payer au final...