Reprise en V, où es tu ?

Je reprends un quote de pangloss d'un article de Bill Bonner (de la chronique agora entre autres), qui voit venir la deuxième jambe de la déflation. Et celle ci pourrait bien être la pire...

Un article à lire !

Sauf à changer de système monétaire (autre qu'un système de monnaie crédit), on n'a plus aucune possibilité de s'endetter encore plus. Tout le monde va devoir se désendetter en même temps (entreprises, secteur financier, gouvernement, ménages...). C'est parti pour la grande déflation. Et toute ressemblance avec 1932 serait purement fortuite...

V-shaped recovery, where art thou?

The Christian science Monitor, Bill Bonner, 07/07/2010 (traduire en Français  )

http://www.csmonitor.com/Money/The-Daily-Reckoning/2010/0707/V-shaped-recovery-where-art-thou

This period of price deflation and debt destruction could be more dramatic than we expected.

On top of the bad news from housing and employment over the past few weeks, Richard Russell’s famous PTI indicator finally dipped into negative territory – signaling a bear market. And the Baltic Dry Index – a measure of world trade – continued to fall.

No new buyers are coming into the housing market. No new jobs are being created. Consumers are still de-leveraging. Banks are still reluctant to lend. And businesses are still loathe to expand in the face of an economy-wide de-leveraging.

Automakers say they see no sign of recovery. Investors are spooked by the thought of a double-dip recession. And 10-year US Treasury notes are selling at the lowest yields in 14 months.

To make matters even more unsettling, the world’s governments have pledged to reduce their countercyclical spending. They won’t get an argument from us on that score. They are doing the right thing. But if they follow through, it will result in the private sector and the public sector de-leveraging at the same time. This is highly deflationary.
Countercyclical spending cannot stop a correction. But pro-cyclical tightening may be able to trigger a depression (as Treasury secretary Andrew Mellon’s drive to balance the budget did from 1921-1930).

Let me put that another way. Governments can’t make bad debt go away. So they can’t prevent a correction and a de-leveraging; they can only delay it. One way or another excess debt needs to be reckoned with. But when the authorities begin to tighten at the same time that the private sector is tightening, the effect will push the world into a sharper, deeper correction…even into a depression.

Accrochez vous à vos dettes, j'enlève les salaires...

Et j'entends, sans surprise, de plus en plus que les marchés actions vont aller retaquiner leurs plus bas de mars 2009...

Cash is king. Mais avant toute chose, l'essentiel, ça va être de garder son job.